EU's Digital Sovereignty Depends On Investment In Open-Source And Talent

The authors are members of the European Open Source Academy and OSAwards.eu project. Where not cited, the data in this article comes directly from forthcoming analysis being conducted by the OSAwards.eu project.

The United States and China are investing billions into developing and maintaining open, scalable, and strategically vital digital infrastructure, securing their technological independence through different but equally determined approaches. While these two superpowers wage digital geopolitical battle, Europe is falling behind, caught between these different but competing visions for our technological future and a lack of competitive local industry.

We argue that Europe must think differently and invest where it matters, leveraging its strengths, and open technologies are the place to look. While Europe does not have the tech giants of the US and China, it possesses a huge pool of innovation and human capital, as well as a small army of capable and efficient technology service providers, start-ups, and SMEs. Many of these are already working with open source, while many more are well-positioned to do so.

What’s at stake for Europe's open source agenda

Common open source-based software and hardware platforms are the arteries of a modern digital economy. They enable startups to innovate faster, public administrations to collaborate, and society to trust the digital services it depends on. Recent research from Harvard Business School estimates that firms would need to spend 3.5 times more on software than they currently do if open source software did not exist, representing a demand-side value of $8.8 trillion globally.

At the same time, development and long-term maintenance remain underfunded, fragmented, and overly reliant on volunteer ecosystems or non-European corporations. Europe will continue to lag so long as it treats its open digital infrastructure as an afterthought rather than as its own strategic advantage, and the foundation for its digital sovereignty, cybersecurity, and competitiveness.

The challenges Europe faces in its open digital ecosystem were, in part, the focus of last week’s EU Open Source Week in Brussels. This week-long series of events brought together open source contributors and advocates from across the continent (and in some cases the globe) to channel their collective actions towards strengthening open source and understanding the role of open source in Europe’s digital policy agenda.

As the speakers at OpenForum Europe’s EU Open Source Policy Summit made clear, Europe has had a more defensive posture around open source in the last couple of years. Failing to change this into a more proactive vision, backed by investment, would have huge repercussions for Europe’s digital sovereignty — the ability to control and make choices about its own digital infrastructure — negatively affecting its security, bargaining power, and prosperity. It would reinforce long-term dependencies and make it more difficult to achieve its other policy priorities — around issues such as defense and trade — more difficult.

There is some evidence of a more proactive vision emerging – for example, the recent call for evidence on an Open Digital Ecosystems strategy. This consultation just closed earlier this week and seeks to renew a European open source software strategy, building on EU efforts like the Next Generation Internet initiative and the recently launched Digital Commons European Digital Infrastructure Consortium (EDIC). While it’s a promising first step, we argue that we should place emphasis on where Europe has leverage when it comes to open source: its workforce and talent pool.

The open source opportunity for Europe’s workforce

Each euro invested in open source software could multiply its impact across the European economy. But there is an uneven distribution of contributions and support across the continent, raising the question of where to invest.

Recent data shows that while Europe accounts for a substantial share of global open source developers, its contribution to open source-derived infrastructure remains fragmented across countries, with development being concentrated in a small number of countries. For example, Germany and France represent more than 40% of total European output when considering the total number of open source projects created.

By contrast, a long tail of Member States each contributes only a few percent, indicating that Europe’s open source capacity is unevenly distributed rather than continental in scope. A similar effect can be found when examining active firm participation in the open source industry across European countries

Meanwhile, the US invests heavily through its domestic Big Tech industry, further fueling its global platform reach. When ranked among the top ten producing countries, the US consistently stands alone, with a repository base far exceeding that of any other single country. This positions the US well to continue perpetuating a status quo wherein its tech firms are the best at continuously leveraging open source to power innovation and unlock economic value for their shareholders.

China has emerged as the strongest individual challenger, reflecting how they treat strategic digital infrastructure as a public-good priority, coupling industrial policy with consistent funding and coordinated state-capital investment, reiterated through its five-year plans. While questions remain about how they implement that vision, the intentionality and ambition behind China's open source agenda — which has cascaded to its workforce — is undeniable.

In both cases, continuity of demand, long-term planning, and clear ownership of strategic infrastructure play a central role. No single European Member State approaches the scale of either the US or China; Europe only becomes visible at this level when national contributions are aggregated at the EU level. Europe as a whole looks stronger when measured by the contributions of its open source workforce, specifically. Historically, over the years on record, the EU countries account for a share of GitHub contributor accounts comparable to that of the United States (≈23%) and substantially higher than that of China (≈12%).

That indicates that Europe supplies a large share of the global talent base and does not lack skills or engagement in open source software. What it needs is an EU-wide strategy for harnessing the potential of its talent pool towards Europe’s digital policy goals, as a fragmented approach across Member States is unlikely to be successful.

A different, more open, way forward

Europe may not have a Silicon Valley, but it has something better: a robust open source workforce. We are beginning to recognize this through fora such as the recent European Open Source Awards, which celebrated European citizens and residents working on things ranging from the Linux kernel and open office suites to open hardware and software preservation.

All the evidence we have presented, both quantitative and qualitative, shows that the opportunity for investing in open source talent is real. What is missing are the investment structures and institutional mechanisms needed to turn this talent and potential into durable products, companies, policies, and infrastructure that remain rooted in Europe, and supported at levels commensurate with their importance.

Europe has a chance of succeeding. Historically, Europe has done a good job in making open source and open standards a matter of public policy. For example, the European Commission's DG DIGIT has an open source software strategy which is being renewed this year, and Europe possesses three European Standards Organizations, including CEN, CENELEC (together CEN-CENELEC), and ETSI. While China has an open source software strategy, Europe is arguably leading the US in harnessing the potential of open technologies as a matter of public and industrial policy, and it has a strong foundation for catching up to China.

To fully realize this potential, Europe must establish long-term funding frameworks and integrate open technologies into industrial and public procurement policy. By aligning national strategies around open technologies, we can transform Europe's latent strength into increased sovereign capability. The time to invest in open source maintenance and skills is now.